Professor James Murray, a maths expert at Oxford University, and his team, have developed a model whereby they can calculate whether a relationship will succeed. 

In a study of 700 couples, it predicted the divorce rate with 94 per cent accuracy.  The calculations were based on 15-minute conversations between couples who were asked to sit opposite each other in a room on their own and talk about a contentious issue, such as money, sex or relations with their in-laws. Professor Murray and his colleagues recorded the conversations and awarded each husband and wife positive or negative points depending on what was said.  Partners who showed affection, humour or happiness as they talked were given the maximum points, while those who displayed contempt or belligerence received the minimum.

Professor Murray said:

"I am still absolutely amazed that human emotions can be put into a mathematical model and that a prediction can be made,"

"What astonished me was that a discussion, sometimes highly charged and emotional, could so easily and usefully be encapsulated.

"It is trying to assess and quantify how a couple interact by giving them a scoring system … If either the husband or the wife is consistently negative, then they are going to get a divorce."

The forecast of who would get divorced in his study of 700 couples over 12 years was 100 per cent correct, what reduced the accuracy of the predictions was those couples who we thought would stay married and actually ended up getting divorced.

Call me cynical, but I have a feeling that the scoring of the conversations by the researchers would have been quite subjective and heavily influenced the results.

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